HARVARD: It’s Not a Question of If, but When the Next Pandemic Will Occur

The COVID-19 pandemic has left a deep mark on the world. It caused the deaths of more than 7 million people and infected over 700 million. It has highlighted health inequalities. But also economic crises and political discord. As COVID-19 gradually fades into the background of everyday life. New challenges are emerging—such as bird flu (H5N1), which is spreading among animals and causing concern. So, Harvard public health experts have shared their views on what we have learned from COVID-19 and how we can be better prepared for the next pandemic.

Lessons Learned: Preparedness, but How?

One of the most significant challenges in combating pandemics is that governments and individuals tend to be reactive rather than proactive. As Caroline Buckee, Professor of Epidemiology, points out, one of the most challenging aspects of preparedness is that if we prepare well, there will be no major outbreaks. However, how can you politically justify investments in something that we cannot prove?

Joseph Allen, a professor at Harvard University and director of the Harvard Healthy Buildings Program, emphasizes the importance of buildings in the spread of disease. He believes we have learned from the pandemic that respiratory pathogens are primarily spread indoors, which means that the safety of our buildings must be a key focus in future pandemic preparedness.

The Inevitability of the Next Pandemic

All experts agree that the next pandemic is inevitable. The question is not if it will happen but when. Climate change, demographic shifts, and globalization create new risks for the emergence of new pathogens and the resurgence of known ones.

As Jonathan Grad, Professor of Immunology, points out, the speed of the scientific community’s response to COVID-19 offers hope. The virus’s genome was quickly sequenced. A vaccine was developed in record time. However, it is essential to continue investing in basic research and public health.

Sara Fortune, Professor of Immunology, adds that while everyone talks about the next pandemic, there are current health crises. That includes tuberculosis, malaria, and pneumonia, which continue to claim lives every day, particularly among children.

Are We Ready for the Next Pandemic?

Although we have learned a lot from the COVID-19 pandemic, experts fear a risk of “pandemic fatigue” among both the public and the political system. As Professor Caroline Buckee noted, society still hasn’t fully recovered from COVID-19. Therefore, it is unlikely that we will respond differently to the next pandemic. Sufficient trust has not yet been built in governments and health systems.

Even though “COVID fatigue” exists, Professor Joseph Allen believes that, faced with a new crisis, people will behave rationally and accept protective measures like masks and tests, especially if hospitals begin to fill up.

What Threats Are We Facing?

In addition to bird flu, experts are concerned about the rise of diseases like measles and malaria, which have become more severe due to decreased vaccination rates and climate change, which is spreading disease vectors. Professor Jonathan Grad also emphasizes the growing problem of antibiotic resistance, which could lead to severe issues in treating infectious diseases.

Bill Hanage, Associate Professor of Epidemiology and Associate Director of the CCDD, adds that the greatest threat is not posed by viruses like Ebola but by those mild enough to go unnoticed until they have already caused significant damage. That is why responding quickly to any new threat is crucial, rather than waiting for its severity to be confirmed.

How to Prepare for the Future?

Experts believe that surveillance and response are key. Monitoring new pathogens and responding swiftly to them could reduce the spread of future outbreaks. However, Bill Hanage believes the current response systems are fragmented and slow. Clear policies and strategies are needed to rapidly and efficiently react to future threats.

The next pandemic is inevitable. But with timely investments in public health, research, and technology, we can avoid the worst scenarios. Thus, we can save as many lives as possible.

Source: https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/features/next-pandemic-not-if-but-when/